Wednesday, June 8, 2011

The Hollywood Collapse is Coming!!


Are you ready for The Reckoning?

No it's not yet ANOTHER Superhero franchise foisted upon us - just the opposite. It's the bursting of the Hollywood Bubble - and it's coming this summer to a theater near YOU!

For years, Hollywood has been courting the so-called "Fanboys" who seem to populate the San Diego Comic Convention and drool over anything in spandex.

Case in Point

This small-but-extremely-vocal subset has been guiding the Tent Pole machine for years, producing films loosely based on comic books from half-a-century ago, to bigger and bigger profits, and, of course, bigger and bigger budgets.

As in the Dot-Com, the Real Estate, and even the Dutch Tulip era, this is what's known as a Bubble.

And we all know what happens to Bubbles, don't we?

Wait - what DID happen to Bubbles?!
I'm not a mathemetician (but I once sang a song about it) but we can see the bell curve in effect this past weekend, when X-Men First Class opened to $56 Million dollars. Sounds like a good number to you and me, but note that this was the lowest opening of the series, which has been dragging on for years now.

On the horizon is The Green Lantern, Harry Potter, Captain America, Cowboys and Aliens, and even The Smurfs in 3D, no less.

Speaking of 3D, much to James Cameron's chagrin, that Bubble has already burst, as sub-par 3D movies like Green Hornet and Gulliver's Travels and extra ticket fees have turned off moviegoers in droves. Because of Kung Fu Panda 2's underwhelming 3D opening, stock in 3D production companies took a huge hit.

Uh-oh, aren't most of these upcoming Superhero movies in 3D?

And, aside from a different color of spandex and a random super power here and there, aren't all these movies the SAME?!

My prediction is that this summer is going to be a big "Wake Up Call" to Hollywood producers.

3D projection, the shiny "new" toy of 2009, will die a painful death. Half of these "Tent Pole" movies will underperform if not flat-out fail.

This Tent Pole Cost Us $300 Million Dollars!!
Studios will take a long, hard look at their bottom line and put the comic books back in a box in the attic where they belong.

This is good news for the Indie Filmmaker!

They will realize that they can create interesting, compelling films for a fraction of the budget and will fire up their low budget divisions. Just recently, Lionsgate announced their own microbudget division.

Movie theaters, reeling from being burned by Hollywood (yet again) with crappy 3D projection systems and the ever-diminishing theater-to-DVD window, will look elsewhere for content.

Already, they are screening operas, Broadway shows, and concerts, with great success.

In addition, indie arthouses are sprouting up in major cities and elsewhere, such as L.A.'s The Downtown Independent, and budding franchise Alamo Drafthouse, which cater to moviegoers that enjoy more brain than brawn.

Add into the mix, the continuous proliferation of smartphones, video sharing websites and video-on-demand services that cater exclusive to indie filmmakers, and you have the makings of a revolution in entertainment.

No spandex necessary!

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